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I guess this is where the obligatory welcome posts goes right?

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  • Bet only what you are willing to lose.
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Welcome again – below this post you will find our most recent commentary and above it you will find the various sections that talk about.

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Whew – back to 66% (NBA) winning projections!

We had a bad night two nights ago with our NBA projections – but last night made it up for us.  Thankfully we are back to 66% – and only going higher.

If you are only interested in finding out tonight’s bet, then stop reading now.  However, if you want to know more about NBA gambling – keep reading.

Ok, listen this year has been crazy with NBA – they are playing back to back to back games.  Vegas REALLY has no clue how score these games.  What’s that mean?  Well for us it means, right now, we have a 57% chance of blind guessing!  What’s blind guessing?  That means zero research has been done, and we have a 57% chance of winning the O/U’s.

As my friend Jeff says “This year, for the NBA, is going to be an under kind of year”.  And so far, he is factually correct.  Vegas has been wrong on the overs by 57% – meaning, if you aren’t going to do any kind of research you should take the under.

Obviously this will change as time goes on, but no worries – your friends here at mjbets.com will be keeping track, and keeping you posted!

Wow 33% – who can lose with a record like that?

Um – we can.  Yeah so our official NBA projection was way off – not by much, but enough to bring our official NBA projections to 33%.

However, right now we are projecting the following:

New Jersey @ Philadelphia - Vegas O/U was 192 – we are saying UNDER!

Charlotte @ Washington – Vegas O/U was 192.5 – we are saying UNDER!

New York @ Cleveland – Vegas O/U was 197 – we are saying UNDER!

Keep checking back – we will have some good posts here about NBA and what to look for (though with 33% it might not sound good, but the logic is sound – we swear!)

 

 

First official NBA Projection of the year!

Alright, we are going to make this short and sweet – I’m looking at three games and am really going to focus on the O/U (shocking, I know right?)

First up we have Cleveland @ Miami: I’m projecting 199 Vegas has 203.  Looking at all of the games, and given both teams have been off for two or three days – I’m totally taking the under on this one.

Next we have Toronto @ Phoenix: I’m projecting 177 Vegas has them down for 187.5.  So I’m taking the under on this one as well.  Both teams haven’t had a day off – and they don’t seem to do well on their second game of a back to back (I’ll explain this more as the season goes on).

Finally we have Memphis @ Portland: I’m projecting 193 Vegas gives them 187.5.  So here, and as much as I hate to do it, I’m taking the over.  These teams are a little different than Toronto & Phoenix – they seem to do better in the back to back vs when they have a day off (again, will explain more as the season goes on).

Check back soon, and we’ll tell you why the under is better than the over in basketball; while in football – the over is better than the under.

GutCheck.com

Wow – well let’s say I didn’t hit the O/Uers like I I had predicted – in fact, I got them completely wrong. HOWEVER, if you were signed up for our news letters – you would have made some money. The Giants O/U went all the way down to 36 – which I took – and hit big time! The fact that the Giants won – as I suggested the would (unlike Mr. Jacobs) keeps us at 77% correct for football.

Now several people (who didn’t sign up for our free newsletter) lost money.  I can’t reiterate enough – you have lost – don’t chase your bets on this one – that’s what vegas wants.

I know, you keep saying”MJ Bets -why don’t you chase your bets, I do it all the time”?

Here is why, I’ve got a few friends in Las Vegas and they devised this ‘money winning scheme’ where one would place the minimum bet, and if they loss – they would double it until they won.  Pretty solid strategy right? That was until he walked into a casino with $1,000 cash and went to the lowest blackjack table he could ($5/hand).  He then proceeded to lose the next 8 hands – which cost him $960 bucks.  Had he been consistant in his bets – he would have only lost $40 bucks.

Moral of the story is – don’t chase your bets and be consistant.  AND – join our newsletter – we had way better projections there.

MJ Bets

P.S. If we could have registered GutCheck.com we would have – but its already taken.

Jacobs Luck!!!!

Jacobs luck is in full effect!!!! #IfYouDidn’tKnowYouDoNow

Wow – Can’t call them all, that’s for sure.

That kick was what killed us, that’s for sure! Let’s see what we can pull off with the 49ers game!

1/22 Projections!

Alright, let’s take a looksy here shall we?

First up we have Ravens @ Patriots O/U of 50.5 – I’m projecting 54.5, so take the over.  I think you’re going to see this game as a high scoring game.  Both of these teams can put up points - especially the Patriots – as we saw last week against the Bronco’s.  PS we were correct on those projections as well.

Next up we have the Giants at 49ers O/U of 42 – I’m projecting 47.5 so again I’d be tempted to take the over.  Also, I’m going to have to disagree (and I might regret this, because I’m going to be watching the game with him) but I think the 49ers luck has run out.  And I agree, they are the team the NFL loves to hate right now, and I think they are a good team – I just think the Giants are on fire right now – and just because they beat them in week 10, doesn’t mean they will do it again.

Next up? I’m going to the Dr so he can start me on my yearly dose of antidepressants now that football is coming to an end :( .  BUT that means NBA and some NCAA BB game projections for you.  Right now we are hovering at about 58% on our projections for NBA – but now that we have collected enough data, I expect to see that popup to mid-high 60% in the next week or two.  We won’t project every game – because we have lives that we need to live – they just play too many damn games!

Early NFL Championship Weekend Ramblings…

OK everyone, first off I just have to say that the Browns and the Lions aren’t as good as the 49′ers, nor will they ever be. As a matter of fact those 2 franchises can suck it, my team is 5-0 in the SuperBowl. Let’s root for 6-0 after the 2011-12 season!

If you know my friends Mark and Bob then you know why that had to be written first and foremost. We give each other a lot of crap about our repective teams, but this year I am King (and its good to be the King).

You can debate our winning percentage (76% or 80%), but you can’t debate your returns if you have been betting according to our expert advive. Here are some early thoughts on this weekends NFL matchups.

New England -7 vs Baltimore O/U 50.5

Baltimore has beaten 7 playoff teams this year by an average of 7+ points, NE hasnt beaten a team with a winning record. Ravens more battle tested for sure. Pats are more flashy

Ravens have won 5 playoff Road games in the past 4 years. Ravens arent afraid of the road

The last 2 times these teams played Brady has tossed 5 INT’s. Ed Reed plays BIG all the time

The Ravens aren’t prone to turnovers and the Pats have a +45 turnover differintal over the past 2 years, advantage slightly to the Pats (if Ravens pass catchers could ever get seperation for DB’s I would call it even but Cam Cameron cant call plays)

If you took 7.5 points on every Ravens game since Harbaugh took over you would be 63-8 in you bets, the Ravens hardly ever get blown out folks. Good D and Ray Rice keeps you in lots of games

Baltimore beat the Texans without any penalties or turnovers, pretty nice disipline but that won’t happen again. If Matt Schaub wouldnt have gotten hurt that Texans team would be in the Superbowl in my mind (next year early bet on a Lombardi trophy anyone???)

Joe Flacco is average at best and will never be Tom Brady, but besides the Goldenboy and his TE’s, this Pats team is pretty average.

If it comes down to Flacco being better than average or to come back and beat Tom Brady then we all know Pats win.

 

If u have 2 put $ on this game for the action and best profit possibility then you bet BALT moneyline (+250).

4.5 on the 1st half sounds interesting also, so a split of you gambling funds for max protection/profit would be 50% on the line of +7 Balt, 35% moneyline Balt+250, and Balt first half +4.5 (15%)

 

Giant vs San Fransisco 49′ers +2.5 O/U 42

Which QB is 16-1-1 against the spread in past 18 home games? Alex Smith (Tie was overtive vs Cowgirls)

Run advantage/Run Stop advantage/Special Teams San Fran Dominates

San Fran is going win in the trenches and in the field position battle

SF D allows 3.5 yds/carry, Bradshaw avg 3.9 and Jacobs avg 3.7. I dont see a whole lot of running here by the NYG, that SF D hits hard all game long and knocks people out, with Bradshaws injury history i see Manning having to pass all day long, and SF opponets have passed 128 more time than they have ran against the 49′er D this season, they are used to teams passing against them.

Giants had the 7th hardest schedule, 49′ers had the 27th. SF really capitalizes on the turnovers, and even with 5 last week they needed a last scond amazing play from Smith to win the game. But Brees and theSaints dont make many mistakes, credit to that D in San Fran

SF avg 7 yards per pass, 4.1 per rush, allows 6.9 per pass and 3.5 per rush

Giants over the past month have been the hotest team in the NFL, they beat GB once and were tied with them with 1 min left in another game, beat the Jets, Beat NE, and beat the Cowgirls in a must win game. They are the hottest team right now

For me at this first glance i think the best value bets for this game is the 49′ers straight up (-130 moneyline) or with the points (-2.5), and that 0.5 1st half spread is tasty also, jump on it.

Whoa, wait a second

Did I say 76%?? I forgot about our long shots – we called the 49ers, AND the Giants (be long shots – guess what that means??? We are now up to 80%!!!!!!!!!!!!!! – if you include our long shot projections – otherwise we are sitting at 76% – still pretty damn good!! Want our picks for next week? SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER!!

You can’t win them all, but you can win 75%!!

While this may bring down our average to 76% we are still way ahead!! If you want to win, play with us. Thankfully, we have enough bets for some NBA games and next week’s NFL games! Want the early picks? You have to join the news letter – that’s the only way you will get our early projections! It’s free, and easy to do, otherwise you’ll have to wait until our posts on this site – also free. Good luck everyone!

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