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#Linsanity . . . does it translate into a strong playoff run?

Well we are almost 2 weeks into #Linsanity, and I have to say i’m impressed with what Jeremy Lin and the Knicks have done so far. I can only imagine what kind of shooting nights we could see in the future, and how many overs and Knicks covers we could see. The crunch time lineup for the Knicks isn’t going to include Shumpert or Fields (except on a real hot streak, always a possibility in D’Antoni’s offense). This team now has the one thing Mike D’Antoni’s teams need, 3 point shooters and a PG who can run the O. If Lin can stop with the turnovers we have the making a perfect storm

PG  Jeremy Lin – Mike Bibby – Baron Davis – Toney Douglas

SG  JR Smith – Iman Shumpert – L:andry Fields – Bill Walker

SF  C.Anthony – S. Novak

PF  Amare Stoudemire – J.Harrellson

C T. Chandler –  J.Jeffries.

This needs closer examination, i see a lot of glue guys I like here. It looks like a great NBA Live team with all those shooters

Jeremey Lin: nuff said

B.Davis: explosive player when he cares and decides to get in shape. He’s had an ailing back all season, but if he can get healthy  he becomes a difference maker who can handle the ball and play an uptempo style (GS Warriors beating the #! Mavs in the first round anyone). That was Baron Davis abusing people.

M.Bibby: very slow nowadays but he can still stand behind that three point line and shoot with ice in his veins (because he’s dead, the guy moves like a corpse).

T.Douglas: 10 min a game, total sub

J.R. Smith: The new guy on the squad brings some shooting and playoff experience to the team. He has always come off the bench while he was in Denver, but he shoots and scores in bunches, when he’s on fire it’s like old school NBA Jam “He’s on FIRE!!!”

Landry Fields: this guy plays 35 minutes a night, now will prob shift to 25 to allow some JR Smith time

Bill Walker: 2nd round pick getting some play, but i see a decrease in his future to make some space for the afore mentioned JR Smith. He’s getting 22 minutes a game, JR Smith will dig into that number quickly.

I.Shumpert: In 30 minutes a night he touts 10 points, 3.5 assists and 3.5 rebounds over the past month. Toss in 2 steals agame and you’ve got solid production but a lot of minutes to get there. Those minutes could be used elsewhere

Melo: Still the #1 guy, but when teams have to pick their poison on who to cover Anthony might actually contribute in other catagories besides points. Top 3 scoring talent, but that is all he does. When he’shot he’s unguardable

S.Novak: 20 solid minutes a night with the scond unit, but unless they need size on a given night he might be riding the pine.

Amare: The #2 option on the team, but he’s a top 20 NBA player. He’s a 20 point 9 rebound a game guy at 34 min a night. He’s tough to guard but is just average on Defense (1 block a game doesn’t show a lot of hustle on D). The Pick and Roll with Lin could be one of the best give and go PG/PF combo’s we have seen in a while.

J.Harrellson: 6 and 6 a night, 18 min a game. eh

Tyson Chandler: Anchored the Mavs defensive effort on the way to a title last year steps up again this year. He’s been having huge games all season long (i’ve got this guy in fantasy basketball, beast mode some nights), and he’s a rebounding machine. A double/double guy every night of the week who plays D and get 2 blocks and a steal every night. He’s the heart of that team.

Jared Jeffries: He’s a hustle guy who grabs some rebounds (5-6) plus a few steals a night. backs up both C and PF spot. He’s solid

 

But it’s the crunch time 5 I wonder about. It’s obviously Chandler, Melo, and Amare to start. but the other two? Most likely Lin right, but he needs to stop with the turnovers he’s also had the most turnovers in 7 starts as an NBA player also at 45, the next closest is Glenn Robinson at 38. This obviously needs to change if Lin plays at the PG. Who is the other guy? It’s gotta be a guard of some kind, and that leaves us pretty thin for those big NYC moments. There are lots of guards on this team, but I only see four getting any real consideration in Smith, Fields, Bibby, and Shumpert (and Bibby is the only PG by the way). I see Fields and Shumpert as the same guy, and Smith can score in bunches but has never seen a shot he doesn’t like. Bibby can’t play defense or hustle anymore.

I hope it’s Smith for our betting sakes, big scorers are tough to come by!

 

Feb 20th update

JR Smith came out guns blazing, hit three in row to start (“He’s On FIRE!!!!”) as predicted. But the bad JR showed up too.  .  . “You know what, i can take 33 footers all day long and hit them, i’ve been balling in China.”

Going 6 for 16 over the entire game was pretty a pretty average 37.5% clip, but over the long run you gotta be hitting that for your 3 point percentage. You general shooting percentage needs to be over 41% to demand 30 minutes a game like what happened on JR’s first night. This means he will need to go to the basket and gettting some high percentage looks, while hitting some free throws at a high percentage also.

The only issue here is JR Smith has never seen a 32 foot shot he didn’t want to take, and at the same time truly believe he can hit those 3′s all the time. It could be D’Antoni’s personal nightmare in his uptempo system, a guy who could end up handeling the ball in crunch time if Lin keeps turning the ball over who believes more in his shot than Melo or Amares.

Let’s hope for the good JR Smith to show up so we don’t have to imagine how terrible that sweep out of the 1st round would be for NYK fans. Or Lin fans

Now if the good JR shows up and he hits those free throws the Knicks might not need to play good D all the time to advance in the playoffs. Free points and getting in the bonus early is what i’m sure D’Antoni has seen wanted to see all the time so his bigs get to rest. “If the slashers slash to the rim then our bigs get to rest when the guy gets fouled. Oh and now we can try for some easy rebounds at the foul line and follow our guards on the break because we are athleticlly superior to most teams now. Rebounds/putbacks should go up also. Scoring is all that matters.

The future could be bright for the Knicks.  .  .

Jeff’s Late night NBA picks for Sat Feb 11th

Saturday Feb 11th 2012 Picks

Clippers -10 vs Bobcats O/U 188.5

Clippers  Over

Nuggets +3 vs Pacers O/U 199.5

Pacers  Over

76’ers -6.5 vs Cavs O/U 185

Over Cavs cover (bold call)

Knicks +6.5 vs Timerwolves O/U 195.5

Under Knicks cover (semi bold call)

Spurs -10 vs Nets O/U 192.5

Over Nets cover

Blazers +4 vs Mavericks O/U 186.5

Over  Mavs

Magic -2 vs Bucks O/U 188.5

Under Magic

Suns +2.5 vs Kings O/U 196.5

Under Kings

Tagged

SUPERBOWL 2012 BABY!!

Alright folks, it’s that time of the SUPERBOWL Projections. This is actually quite sad for both of us – as it means the end of yet another great season football.  So to pass the time, this site will move over the NBA – I know, I know we’ve been promising that for sometime now, but as long as there is an NFL game on – that’s our primary focus.

So let’s get on to the Superbowl, shall we?  Alright, the over/under is at 54 says Vegas – but we don’t care what they say do we?  Nope, we are projecting 55.5.  So what’s this mean?  Well, if you have followed us at all, you’ll know that we are staying away from the O/U – 54 is too rich for our blood.  Now if someone pointed a gun at my head and asked, we’d have to say the over, technically.  But that isn’t our official projection – our official projection is to stay away from this game.

Let’s discuss the first half – right now the O/U is at 27.5 and the Patriots are projected to be up by 1. We are projecting the over on the first half, but we believe the Giants will be leading.  Right now the Giants D is hot, but will tire quickly with Patriots no huddle offence.  On the flip side, the Giants have a lot more play makers on offence, and the Pat’s secondary sucks (seriously one of the worst secondaries out there); therefore, we see the Giants scoring and sustaining drives.  Bradshaw isn’t just a great running back – he’s a good pass blocker; and with Eli now having 5 pass catchers, the Pat’s can’t cover them all.  Having that many play makers, it’s going to be a high scoring game.

Now for second half – check back tomorrow during the game.  Sneak preview: how do you feel about Bill Belichick?  We’ll explain more tomorrow.

Now who’s going to win the big big game?  We are projecting – drum roll please – The Patriots have in the bag.  Our score projection is 31-24 Pat’s.

Sign up for our Newsletter and learn about our parlays and prop bets – sure to hit!

 

PRO BOWL TIME BABY!!

Guess who’s talking Pro Bowl????? Um, not us… At all.  That O/U is WAY to rich for our blood.  We don’t normally bet unders, but on this game, I think I’d take that.

Now, let’s talk superbowl – shall we?  Pats are up by 3 – what’s our projection?  We’ll you’ll have to wait until next Thursday to get our projections for that game.  If you belong to our newsletter – you’ll get it a little sooner ;) .

Whew – back to 66% (NBA) winning projections!

We had a bad night two nights ago with our NBA projections – but last night made it up for us.  Thankfully we are back to 66% – and only going higher.

If you are only interested in finding out tonight’s bet, then stop reading now.  However, if you want to know more about NBA gambling – keep reading.

Ok, listen this year has been crazy with NBA – they are playing back to back to back games.  Vegas REALLY has no clue how score these games.  What’s that mean?  Well for us it means, right now, we have a 57% chance of blind guessing!  What’s blind guessing?  That means zero research has been done, and we have a 57% chance of winning the O/U’s.

As my friend Jeff says “This year, for the NBA, is going to be an under kind of year”.  And so far, he is factually correct.  Vegas has been wrong on the overs by 57% – meaning, if you aren’t going to do any kind of research you should take the under.

Obviously this will change as time goes on, but no worries – your friends here at mjbets.com will be keeping track, and keeping you posted!

Wow 33% – who can lose with a record like that?

Um – we can.  Yeah so our official NBA projection was way off – not by much, but enough to bring our official NBA projections to 33%.

However, right now we are projecting the following:

New Jersey @ Philadelphia - Vegas O/U was 192 – we are saying UNDER!

Charlotte @ Washington – Vegas O/U was 192.5 – we are saying UNDER!

New York @ Cleveland – Vegas O/U was 197 – we are saying UNDER!

Keep checking back – we will have some good posts here about NBA and what to look for (though with 33% it might not sound good, but the logic is sound – we swear!)

 

 

First official NBA Projection of the year!

Alright, we are going to make this short and sweet – I’m looking at three games and am really going to focus on the O/U (shocking, I know right?)

First up we have Cleveland @ Miami: I’m projecting 199 Vegas has 203.  Looking at all of the games, and given both teams have been off for two or three days – I’m totally taking the under on this one.

Next we have Toronto @ Phoenix: I’m projecting 177 Vegas has them down for 187.5.  So I’m taking the under on this one as well.  Both teams haven’t had a day off – and they don’t seem to do well on their second game of a back to back (I’ll explain this more as the season goes on).

Finally we have Memphis @ Portland: I’m projecting 193 Vegas gives them 187.5.  So here, and as much as I hate to do it, I’m taking the over.  These teams are a little different than Toronto & Phoenix – they seem to do better in the back to back vs when they have a day off (again, will explain more as the season goes on).

Check back soon, and we’ll tell you why the under is better than the over in basketball; while in football – the over is better than the under.

GutCheck.com

Wow – well let’s say I didn’t hit the O/Uers like I I had predicted – in fact, I got them completely wrong. HOWEVER, if you were signed up for our news letters – you would have made some money. The Giants O/U went all the way down to 36 – which I took – and hit big time! The fact that the Giants won – as I suggested the would (unlike Mr. Jacobs) keeps us at 77% correct for football.

Now several people (who didn’t sign up for our free newsletter) lost money.  I can’t reiterate enough – you have lost – don’t chase your bets on this one – that’s what vegas wants.

I know, you keep saying”MJ Bets -why don’t you chase your bets, I do it all the time”?

Here is why, I’ve got a few friends in Las Vegas and they devised this ‘money winning scheme’ where one would place the minimum bet, and if they loss – they would double it until they won.  Pretty solid strategy right? That was until he walked into a casino with $1,000 cash and went to the lowest blackjack table he could ($5/hand).  He then proceeded to lose the next 8 hands – which cost him $960 bucks.  Had he been consistant in his bets – he would have only lost $40 bucks.

Moral of the story is – don’t chase your bets and be consistant.  AND – join our newsletter – we had way better projections there.

MJ Bets

P.S. If we could have registered GutCheck.com we would have – but its already taken.

Jacobs Luck!!!!

Jacobs luck is in full effect!!!! #IfYouDidn’tKnowYouDoNow

Wow – Can’t call them all, that’s for sure.

That kick was what killed us, that’s for sure! Let’s see what we can pull off with the 49ers game!

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